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Louisville (8PM ET ACC Network/Watch ESPN) – Let's head to the ACC where the #23 Louisville Cardinals take on the #21 North Carolina State Wolfpack at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. We correctly backed NC State way back on December 19th in a convincing win over Auburn in raliegh but that win might be a bit overstated at this point as Auburn has dropped in the rankings from #7 to #16 and has since lost to the likes of Ole Miss and South Carolina on the road as well. Outside of that game NC State really hasn’t played anyone, the other “good” teams they have played were Wisconsin and North Carolina, both of which were NC State losses. The Wolfpack added another bad loss on the road last week losing as a nine point favorite at Wake Forest, the quality of play in the ACC is just so much better than what NC State saw during their weak non-conference schedule, it’s finally catching up to the Wolfpack and we see them dropping another on the road here. Louisville is supposed to be in a bit of a transition year in the first year of the Chris Mack era but the Cardinals are further along than most teams after a changing of the guard since David Padgett did such a good job as the interim head coach last season. Most of Louisville’s good players stayed around despite the head coaching change and Mack added three graduate transfers to make this a very deep and very experienced team. Louisville has also managed to stay healthy all season and have a rotation that features nine guys playing 18 minutes per game or more, this team has bought into the style of play that made Xavier an elite team under Chris Mack for the past decade and we like Louisville to continue their surprising start to ACC play with another win here. Louisville has five losses this season but three of them came during the first couple weeks of the season, two were to elite teams in Tennessee and Marquette while the other was a one point road loss at Indiana. During that same span Louisville knocked off a top 10 team in Michigan State and another solid opponent in Seton Hall so, unlike NC State, the Cardinals actually went out and played some really good teams during non-conference play and have some positive results to show for it. Louisville’s other losses were to Kentucky, again a Top 15 team, and on the road to Pitt by three, their only ACC loss of the season so far. Louisville has another marquee win over the same North Carolina team that beat NC State and is 10-1 at home this season including a pair of double digit ACC wins over Miami and Boston College so there’s plenty of reasons to believe Louisville is capable of winning and winning convincingly tonight. The betting public is all over NC State here, the public rarely bets on road underdogs in NCAA Hoops so when the public is lopsided on a road dog it’s generally a red flag and we see this as a spot where square bettors take it on the chin here. There’s a ton of money on NC State right now which means the sharps are probably going to grind this out until it gets to -3.5 to buy to -3 and then pounce on Louisville to put this one back at -4 or -4.5 and when the public gets baited like that is usually because the books want the action on a certain side, that side is NC State and it’s always a good thing to side with “Vegas” when a spot calls for it. Louisville is a team on the rise, they had to learn a new coach and system and assimilate a couple graduate transfers but this team has been healthy all season and they have figured out how to play together and a rotation that is far deeper than most of their opponents. NC State is deep in the respect they have 8-9 guys that can score but they don’t defend as well as Louisville and teams that are susceptible to giving up points generally struggle on the road. Markell Johnson is still out for NC State and that’s a big blow as he’s one of the veterans on this team and averages 11.6 points per game. Put NC State on the road here where they managed to lose to Wake Forese and take one of their best all around players out of the mix and that isn’t a recipe for beating a surging Louisville team. The KFC Yum! Center is one of the more raucous venues in college basketball, this will be a great environment tonight and we like Louisville to win and cover the small number here. Play on Louisville -4 for 4 units
Louisville (8PM ET ACC Network/Watch ESPN) – Let's head to the ACC where the #23 Louisville Cardinals take on the #21 North Carolina State Wolfpack at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. We correctly backed NC State way back on December 19th in a convincing win over Auburn in raliegh but that win might be a bit overstated at this point as Auburn has dropped in the rankings from #7 to #16 and has since lost to the likes of Ole Miss and South Carolina on the road as well. Outside of that game NC State really hasn’t played anyone, the other “good” teams they have played were Wisconsin and North Carolina, both of which were NC State losses. The Wolfpack added another bad loss on the road last week losing as a nine point favorite at Wake Forest, the quality of play in the ACC is just so much better than what NC State saw during their weak non-conference schedule, it’s finally catching up to the Wolfpack and we see them dropping another on the road here. Louisville is supposed to be in a bit of a transition year in the first year of the Chris Mack era but the Cardinals are further along than most teams after a changing of the guard since David Padgett did such a good job as the interim head coach last season. Most of Louisville’s good players stayed around despite the head coaching change and Mack added three graduate transfers to make this a very deep and very experienced team. Louisville has also managed to stay healthy all season and have a rotation that features nine guys playing 18 minutes per game or more, this team has bought into the style of play that made Xavier an elite team under Chris Mack for the past decade and we like Louisville to continue their surprising start to ACC play with another win here. Louisville has five losses this season but three of them came during the first couple weeks of the season, two were to elite teams in Tennessee and Marquette while the other was a one point road loss at Indiana. During that same span Louisville knocked off a top 10 team in Michigan State and another solid opponent in Seton Hall so, unlike NC State, the Cardinals actually went out and played some really good teams during non-conference play and have some positive results to show for it. Louisville’s other losses were to Kentucky, again a Top 15 team, and on the road to Pitt by three, their only ACC loss of the season so far. Louisville has another marquee win over the same North Carolina team that beat NC State and is 10-1 at home this season including a pair of double digit ACC wins over Miami and Boston College so there’s plenty of reasons to believe Louisville is capable of winning and winning convincingly tonight. The betting public is all over NC State here, the public rarely bets on road underdogs in NCAA Hoops so when the public is lopsided on a road dog it’s generally a red flag and we see this as a spot where square bettors take it on the chin here. There’s a ton of money on NC State right now which means the sharps are probably going to grind this out until it gets to -3.5 to buy to -3 and then pounce on Louisville to put this one back at -4 or -4.5 and when the public gets baited like that is usually because the books want the action on a certain side, that side is NC State and it’s always a good thing to side with “Vegas” when a spot calls for it. Louisville is a team on the rise, they had to learn a new coach and system and assimilate a couple graduate transfers but this team has been healthy all season and they have figured out how to play together and a rotation that is far deeper than most of their opponents. NC State is deep in the respect they have 8-9 guys that can score but they don’t defend as well as Louisville and teams that are susceptible to giving up points generally struggle on the road. Markell Johnson is still out for NC State and that’s a big blow as he’s one of the veterans on this team and averages 11.6 points per game. Put NC State on the road here where they managed to lose to Wake Forese and take one of their best all around players out of the mix and that isn’t a recipe for beating a surging Louisville team. The KFC Yum! Center is one of the more raucous venues in college basketball, this will be a great environment tonight and we like Louisville to win and cover the small number here. Play on Louisville -4 for 4 units
